35 days.

35 days of acrimony, gaffery, accusations and pandering, pandering, ever-pandering.

Tomorrow, Quebec will find itself on the other side of one of the most frustrating, disillusioning and, frankly, idiotic campaigns of recent memory.

While issues like healthcare, education, the economy and – of course - corruption have dominated Quebecer’s priorities for the majority of the last few months, most have surely been disappointed by descent into name-calling, meaningless controversies and the unfortunate foray into language politics.

With the province now trudging to the polls, and as many as a fifth of Quebec is still undecided, a look back over the campaign that was is maybe a worthwhile affair.

Some polls

With less than 24 hours to go before the polls close, two pollsters have come out with some new – very different – numbers. Forum has released its last update, which was only in the field for Monday, which shows a relative amount of stability with what Leger and CROP have been reporting. EKOS, meanwhile, released its only poll of the campaign, apparently as a part of a larger poll to be released next week looking at trends in sovereignty. Also worth noting that it’s a part of some research and development, so they appear to be trying out some new methods of polling.

Take a look at these two, compared to last week’s Leger poll.

The two are in agreement that the PQ has jumped into majority territory, while the CAQ has slid back, yet the discrepancies over Quebec Solidaire and the Liberals make my eyebrows rise. QS has hovered around 7% for the majority of the campaign, and it strikes me as suspicious that they would enjoy a rather random 4% bump. Meanwhile, it seems fantastical that the Liberals would be seeing an upswing this late in the game. The truth, then, may lay somewhere inbetween – PQ: 36%, CAQ: 25%, LPQ: 26%, QS: 8%.

Jean Charest and the Liberals.

One wonders if Jean Charest will even be voting for Jean Charest.

While no amount of frustration and vitriol has been spared on the premier, his descent in the polls is perhaps unbecoming for the man who has reigned – and, at times, reined in – the National Assembly for nearly a decade.

His descent was not exactly unexpected. Between being inexorably tied with collusion between Quebec and the construction industry and having – by most accounts – bungled miserably the tuition hike and ensuing student protests, it’s no wonder that the Liberal brand has been tarnished in Quebec.

But history may well smile kindly on Charest’s tenure. He came to power at the other end of an unhappy decade for Quebec. He treaded a fine line between battling and appeasing sovereigntist sentiments in the province and set Quebec up to rival Alberta in natural resource development, setting up La Belle Province to – at long last – become a ‘have’ province. Nevermind that Charest scored a coup – that nobody noticed or gave him credit for – in weaseling over $2 billion from the federal government for the HST implementation. That balance between pushing Quebecois autonomy and self-determination while maintaining such a staunchly federalist government is one that is significantly harder than perhaps it appears.

Try as he may, he never really changed the election channel to La Plan Nord. Natural development in the North that may not reap benefits for years simply did not entice middle-class voters who are more interested in getting the province back to work tomorrow. And Quebecer’s were similarly unwilling to take Charest’s word that the province’s ailing healthcare system would be reformed if only he were given one more mandate. Maybe even beyond the few issues that helped channel and voice disaffection for the Liberal government, voters were simply unconvinced that four more years would bring anything more than more of the same.

The prevailing opinion not to count out Charest – and the pushing of his reputation as a wildcat campaigner – that dominated early analysis of the election soon fizzled out as a tired and grumpy-looking Charest took hit after hit. While it’s conceivable that the Liberals would be here no matter how well Charest did in the debates, his aggressive style was perhaps unbecoming of a premier accused of being too rigid and ideological. Even Harper was astute enough to tone down his image from time-to-time to avoid looking defensive.

It seems a sure bet that Charest is heading to electoral defeat tomorrow. If anything, he may score lower than has been pegged in recent weeks, as Francois Legault cuts into his support base and sets himself up as the natural challenger to the frightening specter – be that legitimate or made-up - of Pauline Marois’ PQ-government-in-waiting.

If, say, EKOS is right and, come tonight, the Liberals slide to 23%, that could deliver a devastating blow to the party and shake up the results entirely. ThreeHundredEight predicts that if Charest’s Liberals slip to 27%, they’re on track to be reduced to 25 seats. Below that, there’s no telling into what wilderness the party may find itself meandering through.

There are few scenarios where one can imagine Jean Charest sticking around past his concession speech. I think even he would agree that the Liberals need some new blood. Even if the Liberals win tomorrow night, it’s not certain that Charest will hold onto his own seat. Certainly the numbers are not good to him.

But wonders never cease. It’s possible that Charest could stay onboard if Legault is in a position to form a government.

Pauline Marois and the Parti Quebecois

It is, frankly, shocking that Pauline Marois is doing so well in the polls.

That’s not an indictment of Marois herself, per se, but rather an observation on the troubles that she’s had.

Let’s keep in mind that few even pictured Marois making it to this election. Just a few short months ago, Marois was facing a caucus revolt and had Gilles Duceppe breathing down her neck. While she may have helped pick up the party out of the ditch it found itself in after 2007, her leadership was often described more of a liability than as an asset – her gruff manner only a hindrance to the natural appeal of the party.

But Marois clung on. Some of those defectors who left the party came back. Jean-Martin Aussant’s start-up rebellion fizzled out before it really got started. Francois Legault’s initial challenge to her placement as the natural alternative ebbed just as quickly as it flowed. Marois began to look every bit the leader she had always wanted to be. Billing herself as the nationalist firebrand that she always styled herself as, she even tried to make overtures – albeit lazy ones – to the Anglophone and federalist communities.

Yet Marois’ upticks always seem complimented with toe-stubbing. A string of ill-received pledges – from instituting a secularist charter to making French a prerequisite for holding public office – caused her to walk back on several platform planks and waste precious time explaining and re-explaining.

It’s virtue maybe only to her position as an as the default alternative to Jean Charest that has put her atop the polls. Certainly few have given Marois high marks on her electioneering. Yet, while much ado has been made in the Anglophone media about her supposed radicalism, it’s worth acknowledging that while some of her policies have been poorly received in Montreal and the rest-of-Canada, many of the PQ’s core demographics either support or are indifferent to many of the PQ’s more controversial policies.

So while her campaign may have intensified the distrust of the PQ within certain cosmopolitan circles, Marois’ number have edged ever higher, even in the wake of her supposedly campaign-killing promises.

And, even more shrewdly, Marois’ focus on identity politics – religion, language and culture – has forced the other two leaders to focus their attention on treading the fine line between supporting Quiet Revolution-era ideals while still looking attractive to federalists and Anglophones. Marois, certainly, has no need to tread that line.

Yet, despite the cringe-worthy nature of that Realpolitik, the PQ platform contains some rather clever outside-the-box ideas about how to run a nation such as Quebec. Things like creating an artist residency program in elementary schools to encourage Quebecois art, improving access to daycare spaces, and driving a harder bargain with mining companies vying for La Plan Nord are all commendable objectives for a government-in-waiting. While many may take aim at Marois’ more objectionable statements, it’s perhaps a tad overwrought to say that things like the secularist charter – a piece of legislation that would affect only a small number of public servants – will define a PQ government.

A PQ government, in all likelihood, is exactly what we’ll be seeing. While tonight’s polls certainly point towards a comfortable majority, the prevailing opinion is that Marois will be given a comfortable minority. Whichever it is, look for challenges to her leadership to continue, even as she governs. Pequists must realize that her win was precarious, and that any gains made by Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationle present a dangerous challenge to the party. If Marois cannot reconcile that vote split, the future doesn’t bode well for her.

Francois Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec

The golden boy of reform may have his finish rubbed off tomorrow, revealing only copper.

Once thought to be a logical successor to Charest, Legault’s attempt to vault over the two major parties on the wave of voter dissatisfaction landed on rocky shores. While some may say that Legault’s fall was a logical end of a honeymoon, it seems to me like Legault – to put it bluntly – fucked the dog on this one.

If, three months ago, someone told you that Francois Legault would go into the election with Gaetan Barrette and Jacques Duchesneau, against Jean Charest and Pauline Marois, they would likely laugh and ask how big a majority he’s expected to win.

Yet, instead of hitting Charest hard on issues of accountability and fiscal management, Legault veered off the path and waded into overly-specific issues of education politics and tried his hand at managing the language debate. Neither did much for his image. Certainly his branding as the great anti-corruption crusader faded in recent weeks and his climb upwards in the polls tapered off quickly.

As I wrote earlier, his path to victory is not entirely blocked, but it seems to be obstructed by his own inability to get traction on the issues he rode in on.

Legault also made the questionable choice to emphasize himself more than his team. Convinced, no doubt, by his meteoric rise in the polls after announcing his intentions to start a party, he ran this campaign as though he were Mario Dumont. Make no mistake that he is not. The Coalition’s most powerful asset is its team, and Legault’s failure to highlight that above all else made this campaign overly reliant on Quebecer’s opinions of the man himself. When federalists questioned the CAQ’s commitment to avoiding a referendum, he chose to parry alone rather than to lean on Jacques Duchesneau and his near-compulsive federalism.  In fact, there was more than a week where Duchesneau was nowhere to be seen. A questionable tactic for a campaign so heavily precipitated on cleaning up government.

The coming weeks will be interesting for the CAQ. If they are put into a position to form government – be it by coalition or by getting a plurality of the seats – they face the awkward situation of working with the Liberals, who they’ve labeled as corrupt and untrustworthy. Alternatively, they face working with the PQ, with whom they have little in common. However, if the PQ is on track to form a minority, Legault may have difficulty restraining some of his candidates who got into the race expecting to form government. Those star candidates who put their reputation on the line might not be tremendously happy being on the front benches of a party that’s not at the government table. As such, floor-crossing might be the first step for some of those ministerial types in Legault’s team. If Marois forms a majority, the CAQ might face an existential crisis. While leader of the opposition might suit Legault, it’s difficult to imagine a man with an ego such as his filing such a role for five years if he has no real power to oppose or change legislation.

If the CAQ really is sliding backwards at the expense of the PQ, it’s not even a sure thing that Legault’s star-studded team will be going to the National Assembly. Legault himself might get caught up in the Blue wave that’s hitting the off-island suburbs of Montreal.

So while you shouldn’t expect Legault to resign tomorrow night, unless he loses his seat, don’t expect things to go smoothly in the CAQ camp in the near future.

Amir Khadir, Francoise David and Quebec Solidaire

The little party that could … just might.

It seems like a cruel joke on Khadir that the election came so late. A puzzling surge in popularity for the co-leader and the left-wing QS peaked earlier in the past year, with the party hitting around 15% at various times. The party now bounces around 7% and can optimistically expect to pick up one more seat, sending co-leader Francoise David to the National Assembly.

Yet the Solidaires seem to have optimism to spare, as they expect to pick up a total of four seats this time around, all located in the Eastern part of Montreal. Such a prediction is hard to confirm or reject, as the party’s numbers are remarkably unequal around the island. Khadir and his shoe-throwing, Israeli-boycotting methods don’t exactly play well in the heavily Jewish ridings like Outremont, yet the pair’s working-class appeal and super-feminist branding work well on the young and blue-collar voters in places like Mile End and Hochlega.

But the party is an awkward beast. Its heavy commitment to democracy often puts the party in the position of trying to do it right, rather than fast. Problematic, of course, in an election campaign. The party, then again, isn’t trying to be all things to all people. Many of its core planks – improved public transport, reducing dependence on fossil fuels – are tailored to appeal specifically the ridings they’re looking to win.

And those four seats could mean holding the balance of power in a tight minority government. However, QS might struggle to make itself relevant in a PQ government, especially if it’s a majority. While Khadir has kept himself busy with the blistering critiques that Marois has never been able to make of Jean Charest, he and David might have a harder time attacking the PQ – the two parties agree on many things.

QS’ best bet, really, is a CAQ government. Unlikely as it may be, with Legault as premier the party can really define itself more clearly. And, more importantly, if the PQ vote wanes at the ballot box, it would help those four QS seats come to fruition – a less likely task if the PQ really is at 36%.

But if the more likely scenario takes place and only Khadir and David are elected, those who put their trust in the party to offer a real sovereigntist alternative may start looking elsewhere – like at Jean-Martin Aussant or even back to the PQ – as the QS finishes its third election without much to show.

Jean-Martin Aussant and Option Nationale

Aussant, in my opinion, was the real winner of this campaign.

Even though he may not win his own seat, and Option Nationale could fade into obscurity as soon as next week, it seems to me that ON has run the most straight-forwarded, nuanced, principled campaign of the lot. That said – it’s a lot easier to look good when no one is scrutinizing you.

Aussant offered a fresh take on sovereigntism that was weighed down by virtually none of the same baggage as the PQ, and showed a very commanding grasp of social media, no doubt fueled by its heavily youthful makeup.

I think Aussant has a good shot at winning his own seat, but even that is no guarantee that his party will stay relevant or will even maintain the minimal level of popularity its cobbled together in this campaign. The more likely scenario, it strikes me, is that the PQ will be looking to remove this thorn out of its side before it becomes as big of a problem as QS – especially if the party is looking to replace Marois. If Nicolas Girard, a natural successor for the PQ leadership, is knocked off by Francoise David in Gouin, some may turn to the charismatic and young Aussant to come back into the fold and rejuvenate the PQ.

Check my Twitter feed during the day to get updates from on-the-ground in Montreal.