And they’re off!

The 4.2* Quebec political leaders are now careening off into the wilderness, embarking on a summer election that promises to be an exercise in forehead-slapping politics.

For those of your Rest-of-Canada’ers, I hope to clarify exactly what the hell is going on. I’ve had several RoCers express confusion and dismay at the Quebec political sphere, so I’m hoping to write this as a Quebec politics crash course. As such, there is a glossary at the end of this post.

Also check out my new project - the Great Quebec Election Map! I’ll be adding more layers as the weeks go on.

Jean Charest - LPQ

One may wonder why a premier sitting on a majority government would pull the plug on his proverbial bath a full year early.

Perhaps the most prominent on that list is the Charbonneau Commission. When the legislature resumes in the fall, the province will face a slew of revelations about the status of corruption in the construction industry. Charbonneau, the judge tasked with rooting out the gangsters, mafiosos and politicians involved with the scandal, has already played host to accusations of complicity in dirty-dealings that were lobbed against the mayor of Montreal. The Liberals certainly stand to take the biggest hits from the commission, as the party has long-standing ties with several of those figures that have already been taken down by the corruption union’s fight against collusion. But the official opposition is in no position to throw stones, as they find themselves on a precarious moral high ground, with rumblings that the commission may well point to their previous governments as been equally compromised.

And then there’s the student strikes. The nearly eight-month-long conflict has caused many a headache for Quebecers - business owners, commuters, and affordable-tuition advocates all the same. But there is a growing consensus that, even if he’s their guy, Charest has fumbled his response. His heavy-handed tactics have largely stoked the fires of rebellion and led to some of the more intense stand-offs.

Yet far from running from the strike, Charest is embracing it. While many have chided his response, the majority of his support base have stuck behind their leader. If this drags on into the fall, you may see those supporters slipping into the waiting arms of Francois Legault, who is offering a more ideologically malleable position. But this summer is the tipping point - that disaffection may be quelled for the time being, as the strikes have simmered down over recent weeks, but it is sure to be stoked once more as some students return begin returning to the colleges (CEGEPs) on August 13th. Charest’s much derided Loi 78, more than just limiting the student’s abilities to hold protests - or manifestations - also cancelled the school year for striking students, rescheduling it for later in the summer. Those students are about to come back, and are promising to continue the strike by blocking classes. That, if Charest’s rhetoric is to be believed, is unacceptable and they face the full brunt of the law. It remains to be seen if images of students being dragged from their universities will either help or hinder Charest’s tenuous grasp on the soft middle of Quebec voters.

And finally, there’s La Plan Nord - essentially an unprecedented level of mining and resource development slated to begin in the northern region of the province. This rapid expansion could soon see Quebec competing with Alberta as Canada’s resource heartland. Quebec’s other parties have taken a less-than-excited approach to the plan - celebrating it would be akin to endorsing Charest’s legacy project. Charest is hoping to make this the centerpiece of his re-election campaign, and now is the time to do it. In a year from now, Charest might not be able to conjure images quite as rosy and hopeful as he is currently able to do. With Quebec’s economy still in a slump, and with shovels only now beginning to break, La Plan Nord is as attractive as it’s going to get.

There’s an important thing to keep in mind - much like BC’s Christy Clark, Charest maintains a difficult balancing act. His party is the big tent in which federalist New Democrats, Liberals, Conservatives and all other parties congregate. In this election, he has little hope of expanding his base - he can only hope to staunch the bleeding and cling on to a bare majority (not an impossibility.)

So while Charest shouldn’t be counted out completely, he has little to gain and a long way to fall.

Pauline Marois - PQ

There is no doubt a broad swath of her own party that are uncomfortable about Marois taking the Pequists into the election.

Marois has been an MNA since 1983, and has made multiple runs for the party leadership. Most recently, she embarked on a bid to lead the party against affable (and gay!) Montrealer Andre Boisclair - who eventually beat her out to become leader. Marois retired immediately after losing. Then, in 2007, Boisclair led the PQ to a crushing defeat, opening the door for a return. To give you an idea of what the spirits were like at that time for the PQ - Marois was acclaimed to the post.

She faced a tumultuous run: questions were constantly raised about her leadership, a caucus revolt over the party’s support for the proposed Quebec arena that cost her five MNAs, and an attempted putsch at the hands of ex-Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe - that was put down ceremoniously with a damaging leak that Marois totally had nothing to do with (wink wink.)

And the public isn’t feeling Maroismania, either. Despite Charest’s regularly having a disapproval rating that makes him the most hated premier in Canada, Marois is still 2% behind him.

Charest’s strategy has been twofold thus far against Marois - she’s an opportunist that has joined the roaming gangs of lawless students, and she’s only in it for the sovereignty.

While they haven’t begun to resonate yet; a sounding board in the general election may skewer the PQ leader - and maybe for good reason. She’s running one of the ex-student leaders - Leo Bureau-Louin - in a Montreal suburb, which really just adds to her depiction as a pot lids-banging opportunist.

Here’s an important thing to remember about the PQ - while it is often described as a center-left party (it is the preferred party of many of Quebec’s labour unions) - it is a party with a very diverse voting base. Just like the Bloc Quebecois, it features many members and deputies that lean much more to the right, and who support the party because of its views on sovereignty and the Quebec nation. Those voters are not immovable and, I believe, would support a federalist (or quasi-federalist) party if their disgust with Marois were to reach a certain fever pitch.

And as for sovereignty itself, Charest launched his campaign on the back of the idea that a vote for Marois is a vote for another catastrophic referendum. While this may lead to much pearl-clutching and anxiety in the RoC, there is really no proof that this scaremongering will entice voters outside of Charest’s big anglophone tent.

Francois Legault - CAQ

You’ll see a lot of people calling this party “new” or “upstart.” That’s crap, and Quebecers know it.

This center-right party exploded onto the scene after several top-secret meetings between soon-to-be party founder and leader Francois Legault and ex-Pequist premier Lucien Bouchard. With the PQ scarcely able to eek out more than 35% in the last three elections - a far cry from its hay-day in the 80s, when it nearly broke 50% - there was no doubt rumblings that a third party had a place in Quebec politics.

The CAQ inherits its ideology from the Union Nationale, a now-defunct party that was founded in the 1930s that claimed itself right-wing and a fluid position on the national question - officially it supported a more autonomous role.

The party largely collapsed after 1970, with only a meagre level of support until its final disbanding after its crushing defeat in 1985. Two elections later, a rebel, sovereigntst Liberal staffer by the name of Mario Dumont helped found the Action Democratique du Quebec. The right-wing party defined itself, like the Union Nationale, as “autonomist,” and often shifted its support for an independent Quebec. While the party campaigned for the ‘Yes’ side on the 1995 referendum, its party membership constituted a large number of federalists and the ADQ largely backed off sovereignty after the loss.

The ADQ was often accused of being a Mario Dumon personality cult. Indeed, Dumont’s own popularity was likely the cause for the party’s electoral successes. Dumont was the first to pick up a seat for the party, and used it as a beachhead for the party to expand its support. Finally, in 2007, the party made a massive breakthrough and vaulted itself to the opposition benches - surpassing the Parti Quebecois. It picked up 41 seats, primarily in Montreal, Quebec City and their environs. The party couldn’t maintain its successes and lost half its support only a year later, when they were reduced to 7 seats. Dumont resigned thereafter and now hosts a rather dreadful talk show.

So the struggling ADQ - now completely irrelevant - struggled to justify its own existence.

Enter Francois Legault, an ex-pequist minister who had been invisible on the political scene for several years. He made headlines with the revelations that he’s contemplating starting a new party. The popular disaffection with the two main parties, at this point, was nearly ubiquitous and the news caught fire. His party became competitive against the other two before he even announced anything about it. Before long, Legault filed papers to found the Coalition Avenir Quebec and the party was formed to much fanfare. (Sidenote: the party translates, literally, to ‘The Future Quebec Party!’)

The CAQ quickly cannibalized the remains of the ADQ and appointed its leader as deputy under Legault.

But the party’s brand of rather mundane solutions, especially faced with the student protests, began to send Quebecers back to the sidelines, forever waiting another option. Legault initially voted in favour of Loi 78 - to much deriding - only to turn around and oppose it in recent days - to much mockery.

The CAQ, just like the ADQ, may be led by a sovereigntist, but it’s soft-federalist in practise. Legault has promised a ten year moratorium on the sovereignty question if the unthinkable happens and the CAQ is elected and - more unbelievably - it stays in power for a decade.

But that hasn’t stopped Charest from blasting Legault for wanting to separate just the same.

Here’s the CAQ’s big conundrum - they currently has the support of 21% of Quebecers, yet Legault is the favourite of only 16% of those respondents. Meanwhile, a full 26% of the province thinks that the CAQ best represents ‘change’ (everyone loves change!) That means that the only thing holding the CAQ back from picking up ground is a rather tepid reaction to Legault. An election campaign - or even a debate - could change all that.

And Legault’s slogan doesn’t mince words: “C'est assez, faut que ça change!” - “That’s enough, it’s time for it to change!”

Amir Khadir and Francoise David - QS

In very simple terms, this party is the Quebec version of the NDP.

This party is the marriage of Amir Khadir’s Union des Forces Progressistes and Francoise David’s Option Citoyenne. The UFP incorporated the Quebec wing of the NDP, which had been expelled from the federal party for adopting a sovereigntist platform. The two parties merged and adopted both leaders as co-spokespeople with the new party.

(To answer one question posed to me: if Quebec Solidaire happened to become the government, David would ostensibly become premier, as Khadir currently serves as house leader. Realistically, Khadir - the more experience parliamentarian - would become  the premier. On the same question - while no members of the NDP have endorsed QS, several of its MPs, including rising star Alexandre Boulerice and former interim leader Nycole Turmel, are both members. Several staffers and activists also work for the party.)

The party is largely seen as the most ardently pro-student, with both its leaders often participating in the nightly casseroles. The party also proposes an education policy that would make tuition free in the province, just as the students are suggesting.

In fact, Khadir himself was arrested in protest that was broken up by Quebec police. His daughter later faced a slew of charges due to her connection with a group of vandals.

I had one question, via Twitter, on why QS’ support hasn’t swelled with the advent of the student strike. The answer is relatively simple. Half of the reason is that many of those who came out in full force for the students were already QS members - if not organizers. Certainly a great majority of QS supports the strike. You can’t count new support if you’ve already had it. Secondly, some of the biggest numbers for the students came from the labour movement, which has been in a loveless marriage with the PQ for decades. 

You can bet that a good chunk of that 40% who support the strike are Pequists. You may even find some lefty federalists hiding in the LPQ who disagree with Charest on the matter, but who can’t bring themselves to vote sovereigntist.

So when you’re talking about pro-strike votes not shifting to Solidaire, you’re largely talking about a faction of the PQ that are likely quite loyal to the party, federalists who won’t switch, and people who don’t normally vote. Only in the latter category can QS really expect gains, and that will be a tough slog indeed.

But it’s not impossible: Khadir is the party’s only sitting MNA, and enjoyed a near-meteoric rise in popularity last year - hitting 45% approval and 18% in the polls - before coming down gently since. The party has at least doubled - perhaps tripled - its popular support. It currently sits somewhere between 7% and 10%.

And the party seems well-placed to make one or two more breakthroughs in the province. Co-leader Francoise David’s numbers put her in a good place to take the Montreal riding of Gouin, while the four other ridings on the island where the party broke 10% last time seem like good building blocks.

But the party’s solid left-wing cred, the mainstream of which is often muscled out by the PQ’s union support, might be too much for the average Quebecer to handle, as the party maintains a near religious commitment to democratic confirmation of its platform and strategy that might alienate those who are more impressed by Legault’s shoot-from-the-hip attitude or Marois’ star power in the labour movement.

Nevermind that the party is made up of several contingents of Communists. While I recently wrote that there’s really no reason to fear the Marxists, some might step back upon hearing the news.

It’s also worth noting that if Quebec Solidaire continues to do well this election, the PQ may finally have to face the music and deal with the QS problem. An idea was floated by Khadir within the party to forge a working alliance with the PQ, but both Khadir’s own party and Pauline Marois turned their nose up at the idea.

Jean-Marc Aussant - ON

While there was some uncertainty for a while that the upstart Option Nationale would ever break 1%, the Leger poll released this week confirms that Aussant’s one-man show just picked up a couple more people - they now sit at around 4%.

I talked earlier about that small contingent of Quebecers who consider sovereignty to be their top priority. Those people are Aussant’s desired demographic.

The party was founded after Aussant tearfully left the PQ because he felt it had abandoned its purpose - to create a free Quebec. He later filed papers to start Option Nationale; a party redundant to its core.

The party has struggled to nominate candidates, has received nary a moment of airtime in recent weeks and has completely failed to differentiate itself from the PQ.

That being said, the party may yet find itself a niche, having stolen some of the PQ most hardcore activists - especially online - and could see itself playing a kingmaker role in the future of the PQ - especially if it picks up seats aside from Aussant, and more importantly, if Marois is defeated and resigns.

But there is little hope that Aussant will even keep his own seat.

If there’s any silver lining for him - he recently struck a deal with Quebec Solidaire to not run candidates against each other’s leaders. This will arguably do more good for Francoise David, but Aussant will need all the help he can get.

A word on sovereigntism

You’re going to hear a lot about sovereignty in this election. There’s a pretty important thing to remember here: most Quebecers don’t care. Consider this Leger Marketing poll from January, 2012. It found that a majority (50%) were flat-out against Quebec separating from Canada, while barely a third were in favour (37%) and one-in-ten didn’t know/care.

If we look at the breakdown by party, only two are really monolithic - the Liberals and the Parti Quebecois. 89% of the PLQ are against separating (4% in favour) while 85% of the PQ are pro-sovereignty. The other two main parties - Coalition Avenir Quebec and Quebec Solidaire - are roughly split on the question. The CAQ - a decidedly non-sovereigntist, though not federalist - voters were 41% in favour, 47% against. QS - a sovereigntist party - broke down 55%/36% in favour. 

And support for a separate Quebec is constantly wavering. Last August, 64% of the province opposed sovereignty. 14% of the federalist population did not die - people change their minds. In Quebec, the cold-blooded fear of a sovereign Quebec is isolated largely to a small subsection of the Anglophone community. While many have a position on the issue, few are packing their bags at the first mention of a referendum.

And here’s another critically important metric - at any given time, fewer than 10% of Quebec considers sovereignty a top priority (6% in January 2012, 9% today.) Healthcare, taxes and corruption top that list. 

So don’t believe the hype when the Globe & Mail runs an endless stream of anti-sovereignty editorials. It’s crap. When the FLQ were mailing pipebombs, it may have been legitimate. Today? It’s hot air.

Glossary:

Pequist/ADQuist/CAQuist: Basically shorthand for saying a support of a party. Like Tory to Conservative, Pequist is a member or support of the PQ.

Sovereigntist/Sepratist/Autonomist: These words are, to varying degrees, the same. One usually calls oneself a sovereigntist; i.e. you support an independent Quebec. A separatist is usually polemical, and used by anglophones. An autonomist is someone who supports a more independent Quebec, but one that remains in Canada (for the time being.) They’re usually considered a soft federalist.

Manifestation/GGI: A manifestation, directly translated, is a protest. It’s come to be synonymous with ‘GGI’ (usually #GGI) which stands for ‘grève générale illimitée,’ or: unlimited general strike.

Assemblée Nationale: Basically, the french word for ‘parliament.’