Jean Charest has picked up a shovelful of coal and thrown it into the great Quebecois rumour engine.

Amid weeks of cryptic clues dropped unceremoniously at press conferences, the shroud of mystery has been ripped back and Charest’s plan for a summer election laid bare.

September 4th. That is, supposedly, the day that the madness ends. Quebec has been subjected to a year of student strikes, corruption probes, political insanity and everything in between. We’ve seen the daughter of an MNA arrested, two parties plagued by ties to the mafia, the molting of Mario Dumont cult-of-personality-party for Francois Legault’s cult-of-personality-party and a crop of promising parties pop up who are seemingly incapable of breaking 2%.

And the Quebec electorate seems despondent. Polls, far from showing any clear-cut leader, demonstrate the Quebecers are unimpressed, uninspired and frankly disappointed in all of the leaders. Charest’s government looks like a combination of career politicians put into power with mafia dollars, while he looks like a ham-fisted ideologue hell-bent on crushing the students for political reasons.

Pauline Marois, on the other hand, looks like an opportunistic reactionary with no clear policy aside from winning at all costs. Her lot being thrown in with the students looks awkward and forced, which fails to win her much support from students themselves, and opens her up to flak from the more conservative-minded voters.

And then there’s the Coalition Avenir Québec. The little-party-that-could has a broken engine is on the steepest incline up the hill. While there’s still hope for Legault’s ideology-less, de facto-federalist party, it requires more creative thinking that’s been offered by the party thus far. While the party’s decent third-place poll numbers are respectable, they are supported by nothing else than a vague craving for change. As an election carries on, you may find the Pequists and Liberals from that voter base slide back in an effort to block the other’s victory.

And then there’s the rest. Quebec Solidaire may benefit if the students can mobilize themselves in Montreal, but that boost would pick up another three seats at the absolute most. Option Nationale has utterly failed to set itself apart from Parti Quebecois, other than offering itself as a needlessly more dogmatic option. The Green Party is, as it is always is, barely an afterthought. The upstart Conservative wing has absolutely no base, no room for growth and no real stated purpose of existence. The fresh-faced Union des Citoyens may offer an NDP-like choice for those left-of-center voters, but it is too new and too short on resources to ever hope to grab a seat.

This election will be decided by the airwaves. The debates, no doubt, will play a big factor in determining the lesser of the evils. Do Quebecers choose the steady hand that they absolutely loath? Do they go with an unpalatable, unproven and frankly unlikeable reactionary who pledges another referendum? Or do they chose the old face promising with a new mask?

But no election is determined by popular vote. So, let’s take a look at the ridings-to-watch that could indicate which way the election goes.

Rivière-du-Loup

This riding - which was held for 15 years by former ADQ-leader Mario Dumont - has to be a test of the CAQ’s moxy. The riding is represented by Liberal Jean D’Amour, who picked it up in a 2009 by-election after Dumont’s retirement. The ADQ plummeted nearly 40% in that election, which was divided equally between the PQ and LPQ, with the Liberals pulling it out by a healthy 12%.

 This riding should be one to watch for the CAQ, but they’ve yet to nominate a candidate. One local paper touted former ADQuiste Gilberte Cote, but that’s not been confirmed. If that’s the case, that would be a decision of colossal stupidity from the CAQ - Cote led the ADQ to its crushing defeat in this riding in 2009.

Matching the CAQ’s unpreparedness is the PQ, who also do not have a confirmed candidate. The same local paper offers two names - Vincent Couture and Michel Lagacé. Neither are remarkable in any way, and are hardly what the PQ needs to get the 7-point swing in this riding. If the CAQ repeats their performance and knee-cap the Liberals like they did in Argenteuil, this riding - and many others - may be in play.

Prediction: CAQ/LPQ Toss-up, Liberal edge.

Dubuc

This is a shaky Liberal seat held by Serge Simard - Charest’s minister for natural resources. This may be the easiest minister to pick off this summer.

Simard’s riding was only picked up in 2008 from the PQ with a 2% margin. Before that, the riding hadn’t gone Liberal since 1976. The PQ have nominated activist Jean-Marie Claveau to run. A prefect in the Saguenay region, he’s certainly a community face, but hardly a star candidate. The CAQ have yet to nominate a candidate.

If the PQ keep their numbers up province-wide and dump a bit of money here, this shouldn’t be a hard battle.

Prediction: Parti Quebecois pick-up.

Fabre

If Quebecers wanted to make the government pay for the student fiasco, they would start here.

Fabre is the riding for newly-appointed education minister Michelle Courchesne, who has trumpeted Charest’s hard line against the students.

The CAQ are apparently smelling blood, as they are running the president of the party, Dominique Anglade, who has been a pretty visible face for the rise of the CAQ. I would recommend against them snorting that blood, however, as the ADQ pulled in just under 12% in this riding in 2008 and would need an act of god to unseat this minister.

The PQ, however, may have a better shot. They fell 9% short of taking the seat in 2008. They, however, have decided to run their defeated candidate from 2008. Advisable, it is not.

But knocking the Liberals down below 40% would still be a message to Charest.

Update: With Courchesne not running again, this seat is going to be a lot closer. Expect the PQ do well.

Prediction: LPQ/PQ Toss-up

Montm

orency

This riding may prove to be one of the most interesting. While it is currently held by Liberal Raymond Bernier, it had flipped between the Liberals and PQ for years, before getting picked up by the ADQ in 2007.The Liberals took it back in 2008, by a thin 3% margin. The PQ trailed behind the LPQ by about 10%. That means that, given the current poll numbers, this is a solid three-way race. While the Liberals may be down 10% province-wide since 2008, they still maintain a dominating lead in Quebec City.

Continuing the trend - neither the PQ nor CAQ have candidates in Montmorency yet, but no doubt that will play an important role in the results. The PQ candidate in 2008, for example, was a rather unenjoyable humourist who took a rather public potshot at Marois that got a fair bit of airtime. La Presse called him a “gag candidate.” Any other candidate will likely help their chances.

Prediction: LPQ/CAQ Toss-up, CAQ edge.

Vanier-Les Rivières

Like Montmorency, Vanier was an ADQ seat that the Liberals picked up in 2008. This one, however, was originally won in 2004 and the results were even closer last time around - just over 1% separated Liberal Patrick Huot and ADQuiste Sylvain Legare. It doesn’t help that Hout is a government backbencher.

The PQ candidate (read: sacrificial lamb) will likely be the president of the riding association Marc Vanier. He’s also the ex-president of the Société nationale des Québécois et des Québécoises de la Capitale. Not a star, but not a nobody. That said, don’t expect the PQ to break too far above their 22% they picked up last time.

The CAQ is likely re-running Legare. While his status as an ex-MNA might be a boost, it also plays against the CAQ’s message of being a fresh perspective. Presenting the ADQ’s slate from 2008 might not be the best way to inspire hope for change.

Expect this riding to be hard fought but, ultimately, a good shot for the CAQ.

Prediction: CAQ pick-up

Beauce-Sud

This is very similar to the previous two ridings - a Liberal pick-up from the ADQ’s collapse in 2008.

This riding is remarkable for only one reason - it’s in South-East (central) Quebec. While it’s just south of Quebec City, it still far enough away to be a little more rurally-minded. It’s not quite Eastern Quebec, either. The numbers have shifted only slightly in Central Quebec since 2008 - the Liberals down 3%, the PQ down 1%, the CAQ/ADQ down 4%. The big winners, surprisingly, are QS. Don’t expect that support to stay.

If you look nearby in Eastern Quebec, where the Liberals commanded 40% support in 2008, the roles have been reversed and the PQ are now up to 43% - besting the LPQ’s 27% and far outpacing the CAQ’s 16%. You could see that trend spreading to Central Quebec, with anti-Liberal sentiment translating to PQ votes.

While this riding is probably out of the PQ’s grasp, it will be interesting to see where the votes shift.

Prediction: Liberal hold.

Nicolet - Bécancour 

Despite a strong start for the Option Nationale, things aren’t looking so good. Jean-Martin Aussant gave voice to anti-Marois sentiment in the PQ as a putsch against the unloveable leader seemed imminent. That coup never materialized, and now Aussant is stuck with a party that nobody seems to care about. ON can’t seem to break over 1% in the polls - amazing being beaten by the “others” option in most polls.

That makes his Central Quebec riding (previously known as Nicolet-Yamaska) easily flippable. This is helped by the fact that the riding has been redistricted, meaning that Aussant’s personal popularity in the riding may be marginalized.

It was an ADQ-held riding from 2007-2008, and was won by under 1% by the PQ over the LPQ in 2008.

Here’s a twist - the ADQ will be nominating the PQ’s candidate from 2007, while the PQ will be running an organizer that was tasked with cleaning up after the departure of Aussant. So, basically, you have three Pequists running against each other.

The Liberals, on the other hand, don’t have a candidate waiting in the wings. Considering that this election is their idea, it would strike one as a smart move to have a candidate here to try and come down the middle of a split sovereigntist vote.

Prediction: PQ/LPQ/CAQ/ON toss-up, PQ edge.

Bourdas

You want an exciting riding?

Borduas will square off ex-Pequist Pierre Curzi, the crazy popular actor, who resigned from caucus over the PQ’s support for a Quebec City arena. Now, the PQ is running former Radio-Canada journalist Pierre Duchesne against him, to much fanfare and acrimony.

The riding is solidly sovereigntist, yet it is not a bad riding for the Liberals - they took nearly a third of the vote in 2008. The PQ and LPQ, however, have slipped considerably in the area south of Montreal, bleeding support for the CAQ.

The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate, but the CAQ are running noted environmentalist Emmanuelle Géhin.

So this riding will be notoriously hard to predict. Expect to see the PQ vote fracture, the LPQ vote drop, and the CAQ surge. What that means, however, it far from certain. Duchesne could take votes from all parties.

Prediction: PQ/Curzi/CAQ Toss-up, PQ edge.

Gouin

This riding is tricky. It is represented by the youthful Pequiste Nicolas Girard who holds a spate of critic roles that tasks him will dealing with poverty and Quebec’s ERs. 

He, however, is facing off against Françoise David, the co-leader of Quebec Solidaire. QS’ numbers on the island of Montreal are, if the polls are to be believed, double what they were in 2008. That, no doubt, is concentrated largely in ridings like Gouin. The PQ, meanwhile, are down 5% on the island and may have a fight on their hands.

While QS’ full-throated support for the student strikes might not do much good in much of the province, this riding represents the area where the Casserole protests originated and still - amazingly - continue. David lost by 10% in 2008, but the QS (and their earlier incarnations) have been gaining steadily in this riding every election.

None of the other parties have presented candidates yet. If the CAQ pulls any support from the PQ, however, this riding may well be David’s.

Prediction: PQ/QS toss-up.

Louis

Hébert

This riding is in play for no other reason than the fact that it’s represented by Sam Hamad.

Hamad was the transportation minister that made ‘lackluster’ look desirable. He oversaw the crumbling of Montreal’s infrastructure and regularly stuck his foot in his mouth over the simplest of questions.

It what may well become his epitaph - emblazoned on PQ leaflets, no doubt - Hamad once stated with no irony that “If a bridge or a road is open in Quebec, it’s because it’s safe.”

Right.

While this Quebec City riding may not have otherwise been competitive, the CAQ and PQ might sink their teeth into Hamad’s otherwise comfortable lead.

The PQ have yet to field a candidate, but it appears as though the CAQ will be running Jean Leclerc, who was the Liberal MNA for the nearby riding of Taschereau. He served for nearly a decade until 1994. He may have trouble being heard over Quebec’s collective yawn.

Prediction: CAQ/LPQ/PQ toss-up, Liberal edge.

Bonus:

Sherbrooke

Yes, this is Jean Charest’s riding.

While it may strike one as being a tad odd even include the seat of a sitting premier who, even by the most pessimistic accounts, is still doing relatively well in the polls, it’s worth meditating on.

Consider this - this riding was won by Charest by a less than 4% in 2007. he pulled out 8% in 2008, thanks to a tanking ADQ.

This time around, it may be even closer. With the CAQ cutting into his support in a much more serious way than before, he may have to watch his back. Add on top of that the PQ has nominated ex-Bloc MP Serge Cardin to run, it may be very close. Cardin was an MP from for 13 years (1998-2011), and actually took the riding from the Liberals after Charest’s resignation. He regularly took the riding with over 50% of the vote, and even managed to cling onto 36% in the face of the Orange Wave in May, (losing to Pierre-Luc Dusseault’s 43%.)

You’d get outside odds on betting against Charest here, but it’s not an impossibility that this embattled premier will get knocked off by the PQ’s star candidate.

Prediction: Liberal edge.

So there you have it - ten (+1) ridings to watch. 

Did I miss one? Did I misread a riding? Let me know by hitting the comments button above.

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