Storm Carroll Photography

Bruce Hyer must have quite a set.

The backbencher Northern Ontario Dipper planned on standing up this afternoon, as a New Democrat, and delivering a member’s statement renouncing his party.

Why?

According to his website,

“I have much respect for most Members in this House. But our three main parties require lockstep discipline, with little room for meaningful public debate… or for putting constituents ahead of party politics.

Instead of cooperation and compromise, voters often see mindless solidarity, where political parties are always right and voters are always wrong. One example is the long gun registry, where there has been no real compromise at all. Mr. Mulcair has made it clear he will bring back the long gun registry, and will use the whip. I am also concerned that Mr. Mulcair does not seem willing to co-operate with other parties on important issues. And on climate change, parties are hopelessly locked to Cap & Trade or outright inaction, making compromise to achieve even piecemeal progress impossible.”

Weird, right? 

First, because the Long Gun Registry is gone. Why not leave the party when his vote was actually being whipped, rather than well after the fact?

And why did he agree to run for a party - four times - when he knew very well that their platform was in support of a cap and trade model?

Here’s a clue,

First elected in 2008, Hyer was left out the NDP shadow cabinet announcement last week. “One of the jobs of any new Leader is to unite their party, and there are different ways to do that. Being excluded from any position was a clear message that my constituents will be muzzled.”

Hyer backed Nathan Cullen in the leadership race, and you have to wonder if he’s just no fan of Mulcair. Getting left out of the shadow cabinet was the straw that broke the camel’s back, and Hyer wanted to be a hero, so he climbed atop his firearm camel and rode right out on it.

But here’s another theory.

Hyer’s riding (Thunder Bay—Superior North) has a population of about 60,000. Even with the 15 new seats that Ontario will be getting this year, the average population per riding with be 108,000. The math is pretty simple, there - Northern Ontario is going to lose a seat. With the redistricting coming up soon, Hyer’s riding runs the risk of being folded into a neighboring riding. That could mean Hyer will have to duke it out in a nomination battle with a fellow Dipper. Who could that be? Well Hyer is bordered by Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (pop. 74,000), Timmins—James Bay (pop. 82,000) and Thunder Bay—Rainy River (pop. 83,000) - (also, Kenora, which is held by a Tory.)

So, there’s a good chance that Hyer could have to fight a nomination battle with either Carole Hughes (deputy Aboriginal Health critic), John Rafferty (critic for theFederal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario) and, of course, Charlie Angus (Ethics, ATI and Privacy.) In fact, those MPs are pleading with citizens to help keep all ten Northern Ontario ridings.

How can Hyer, the backbencher, hope to compete?

Either Hyer has resigned his fate, and is now just sticking his thumb in Mulcair’s eye.

Or, he’s taking a gambit, setting himself up as a mavrick rights-protector who might actually be able to beat the NDP in his newly-drawn-up riding.

Or maybe he’ll cross the floor. Maybe even to the Greens.

Either way, this is hardly the principled  crusade he makes it out to be.